Predicting the Weather: Fact, Fiction, and Forecasts
Weather lore holds that “As the day lengthens, so the cold strengthens.” This will be true in the southwestern part of the nation this winter, but The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a warmer and wetter winter for most of the country.
This year, winter officially begins on December 21 at 5:23 p.m., when the Sun reaches its greatest declination south of the celestial equator. The days around the 21st may be the shortest and darkest of the year, but this means only that we’ll see more and more sunlight until the vernal equinox around March 20.
This winter’s forecast may be welcome news if you like slightly warmer weather. With last winter’s weak La Niña most likely to be replaced by a weak El Niño, cold air masses will have difficulty making any prolonged inroads into the northern Plains, the Great Lakes, or northeastern states.
Aside from in the southwestern U.S., temperatures will be above normal this winter, as will precipitation, although the Southeast, southern California, the nation’s midsection, and parts of Alaska and Hawaii will have below-normal precipitation. Snowfall will be greater than normal in most of the Intermountain region, the higher elevations of the Southwest, and the nation’s midsection, but below normal in most other areas that receive snow.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac—America’s oldest and most popular Almanac—uses a unique, age-old formula that’s traditionally 80% accurate. Our weather forecasting methodology stems from a secret formula that was devised by our founder, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792.
Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun. Notes about his formula are locked in a black box in our offices in Dublin, New Hampshire. Over the years, we have refined and enhanced this formula with state-of-the-art technology and modern scientific calculations, and last year our overall accuracy rate in forecasting the direction of temperature change from normal for the 2017–2018 winter was 83%.
If you want more specific winter weather predictions—including when to expect snow, rain, and sunny skies—and much more useful information, you can get it all with an Old Farmer's Almanac Weather Club Charter Membership!
Announcing The Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Club! This new and exciting club is designed especially for you—with just the inspiration and information you need as a casual or dedicated weather watcher.
We’ve put together essential Old Farmer’s Almanac resources to celebrate your love of weather watching and give you tons of tips for making your weather watching activities fun and productive. And it all starts, of course, with The Old Farmer’s Almanac.
Whether you’re a serious weather watcher or just like to enjoy the changing weather from season to season, a Charter Membership in The Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Club will keep you entertained, informed, and inspired all year long!
Since 1792, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been a traditional resource for folks who like to get a long view on upcoming weather trends, dedicated farmers, avid and casual gardeners, and people who love to collect little snippets of country wit and wisdom that they can share with family and friends.
We’re not just the oldest published almanac, but also the oldest continuously published periodical in North America—and we’ve been around longer than any newspaper or magazine, too.
Get your Charter Membership in The Old Farmer’s AlmanacWeather Club today—with resources to make your weather watching more enjoyable. From sunrise to moonrise, blizzard to summer breeze, you’ll enjoy each day a little more with these fabulous weather resources!
With your Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Club Charter Membership, you get everything you need to be ready for any weather:
- Weather Notebook: Whether you like to get right into the heart of the storm or you’d rather watch the weather from the comfort of your favorite chair, this notebook is the perfect place to log the daily weather. There’s space for you to record the weather essentials, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and more. With room for 4 years of daily observations, over time you’ll be able to track—and even predict—local weather conditions.
- 2019 Weather Watcher’s Wall Calendar: Mother Nature puts on spectacular shows around the world, and we’ve captured some of the most amazing weather moments for you in our 10-7/8\" x 16-3/4\" Weather Watcher’s Calendar. From northern lights in Norway to a dramatic dust storm in Africa, each month of our Weather Watcher’s Calendar will bring you a stunning new photo. Each month also features a key event in history, from freezing rivers to crippling blizzards to the unusual sighting of a blue Sun. The “Ask the Old Farmer” section gives you detailed answers about unusual weather phenomena. The information sidebar gives you a little poem that summarizes the essence of each month.
- The Old Farmer’s Almanac: This special softcover edition of the 2019 Almanac has a hole drilled in the corner for easy hanging. (In the old days, people would hang it in the outhouse.) Just like its hardcover partner, the Almanac is packed with the tips, trivia, and insights that make it a family favorite.
- The Old Farmer’s Almanac EXTRA! Our monthly digital magazine includes articles on weather, gardening, and other content not found in the print edition. It’s a great way to keep up-to-date on Almanacky topics throughout the year.
When you claim your Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Club Charter Membership today, you’ll enjoy these benefits and more:
- Know your snow. There’s more to snowflakes than meets the eye, and you’ll become an expert at identifying snow crystals—and you can use that knowledge to predict your local weather.
- Explore extreme weather. Read the stories behind wild weather occurrences, including tornados, lightning, dust storms, and more.
- Share weather wisdom. Some weather proverbs have endured for a reason. Save your favorite weather sayings for a rainy day—or any time you want to share them.
- Predict and plan. Use the handy Moon, tide, and weather guides throughout the year to help you map out your activities.
How can you not consider becoming an Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Club Charter Member?
There’s so much weather knowledge to gain as a Charter Member of The Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Club:
Each day brings its own weather gifts, and you can keep track of them as you log your observations in The Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Notebook. This handy notebook is chock-full of weather facts and has space for you to chronicle the weather day by day for 4 years!
This weather notebook makes taking observations a pleasure:
- Space to record daily temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and special weather conditions
- Packed with reference charts and beautiful weather photos
- A new weather proverb for each day
- Weatherproof softcover binding
- Attached red ribbon marker so that you never lose your place
As you watch the days pass from season to season, enjoy the vibrant photography in our Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Watcher’s Calendar. This compact calendar is the perfect size to fit on the wall in your kitchen or den or right by your office window. Each month features fabulous photographs of Mother Nature at her best—intense, peaceful, spectacular.
Get additional weather insight each month with the “Ask the Old Farmer” section, where you’ll find detailed answers to questions about weather topics ranging from the effects of erupting volcanos to the color of lightning. You’ll love the photography, proverbs, and weather lore in our 2019 Weather Watcher’s Wall Calendar!
In the convenient, hangable, softcover edition of the 2019 Almanac, you’ll find a section dedicated to the weather: predictions, history, tips, and trivia. The weather outlook for the entire country is there at your fingertips—just check out your region for a month-by-month breakdown of what you can expect. You’ll be prepared for anything!
Here’s a taste of some of the weather information that you’ll find in the 2019 Almanac:
- Check our accuracy (we do) with a comparison of last year’s predictions against the actual data.
- Focus on your home base with detailed weather predictions month by month—including a handy temperature/precipitation chart to give you an overview of the year.
- See how we use the Sun and Moon in our weather predictions.
- Safety first: Learn how thick the ice must be before you venture out onto the pond or lake.
- Be ready for severe heat and cold with our handy heat index and windchill table.
- Don’t have a weather station of your own? Follow our tips for measuring weather features like hail size and wind speed.
- Just in case, we have guidelines for measuring the strength of earthquakes and tornados.
- Be ready for hurricane season with the list of hurricane names for 2019 for both the Atlantic and Pacific and review the list of hurricane names retired from the rotation because of their strength and destructiveness.
And because we know that things change, each month you’ll get new articles and original content with our digital magazine, The Old Farmer’s Almanac EXTRA! It’s a treasure trove of Almanac information that you won’t find in the printed edition, including audio and video content. EXTRA! leads you to some interactive fun when you’re ready for a change of pace.
And all of this is available to you—right now—when you claim your Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Club Charter Membership.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac
P.S. Why not be among the first to join us today and benefit from the valuable Almanac weather information that you can’t get anywhere else? Become an Old Farmer’s Almanac Weather Club Charter Member today—while this special offer lasts!